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Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Scripps Sports, FanDuel SN Sun

Away

Panthers

22-11-2

4–2

at

Home

Lightning

18-11-2

FLA 51%TB 49%

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Benchmark International Arena · ESPN+, Scripps Sports, FanDuel SN Sun

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.

TB favored FLA favored6 scoring plays
P1P2P3TB50%FLA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Panthers
Lightning

Scoring summary

  • P319:29Sam Reinhart Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (15), Aleksander Barkov (23)4–2
  • P33:26Brayden Point Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (16), Darren Raddysh (10)3–2
  • P211:10Eetu Luostarinen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
  • P210:28A.J. Greer Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Tomas Nosek (4)2–1
  • P119:55Nick Paul Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (22), Darren Raddysh (9)1–1
  • P115:51Sam Reinhart Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Aaron Ekblad (18), Matthew Tkachuk (22)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P115:51Sam Reinhart Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Aaron Ekblad (18), Matthew Tkachuk (22)FLA 1 – 0 TB · FLA 51% → 67% +16
  2. P119:55Nick Paul Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (22), Darren Raddysh (9)FLA 1 – 1 TB · TB 32% → 49% +17
  3. P210:28A.J. Greer Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Tomas Nosek (4)FLA 2 – 1 TB · FLA 51% → 71% +20
  4. P211:10Eetu Luostarinen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneFLA 3 – 1 TB · FLA 71% → 86% +15
  5. P33:26Brayden Point Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (16), Darren Raddysh (10)FLA 3 – 2 TB · TB 8% → 24% +16

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Panthers 51%

Toss-upHit
FLA 51%TB 49%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
FLA 51%
ML FLA -115 / TB -105
Pre-line forecast
FLA 48%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
FLA 44%
Ratings vs. market
−6.6 pts
FLA: Elo 44.4%, market 51.1%
Fair odds
FLA -104
TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
FLA 3.3 – 3.2 TB
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorFLATBWhy
Team rating15631546Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−14+7FLA: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTB +39 EloTB 55.6%
Market-implied ratingsTB 51.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTB 52.4%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastFLA 51.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning compared, with each team's league rank
FLAStatTB
4th of 323.6Goals scored4.01st of 32
20th of 323.1Goals allowed2.911th of 32
9th of 32+0.5Margin+1.13rd of 32
5th of 3253.2%Shot share50.5%13th of 32
25th of 3289.4%Save percentage90.5%10th of 32
4th of 327–3Last 107–34th of 32
8th of 3210–7Road vs home10–57th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PanthersLightning
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonFLATB
Puck line17–1716–14
Last 105–58–2
Favorite11–1611–9
Underdog6–15–5
Overs–unders20–1414–16
Overs–unders, last 104–65–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

FLA 6–2 TB in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.