New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers
Devils- Timo MeierGoals1
- Luke HughesAssists2
- Timo MeierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:35Dawson Mercer Goal (8) Batted, assists: Jack Hughes (30), Luke Hughes (13)0–5
- P38:00Stefan Noesen Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (16), Timo Meier (14)0–4
- P211:13Jack Hughes Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (12), Jesper Bratt (31)0–3
- P24:41Timo Meier Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (10), Ondrej Palat (8)0–2
- P14:29Jack Hughes Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (30), Dougie Hamilton (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:29Jack Hughes Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (30), Dougie Hamilton (18)NYR 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 69% → 81% +12NJ 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P24:41Timo Meier Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (10), Ondrej Palat (8)NYR 0 – 2 NJ · NJ 81% → 91% +10NJ 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P211:13Jack Hughes Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (12), Jesper Bratt (31)NYR 0 – 3 NJ · NJ 92% → 97% +5NJ 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P38:00Stefan Noesen Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (16), Timo Meier (14)NYR 0 – 4 NJ · NJ >99% → >99% +0NJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P312:35Dawson Mercer Goal (8) Batted, assists: Jack Hughes (30), Luke Hughes (13)NYR 0 – 5 NJ · NJ >99% → >99% +0NJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 70%
- ML NYR +220 / NJ -260
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- NJ: Elo 60.9%, market 69.8%
- Fair odds
- NJ -231
- NYR +231 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.7 – 3.8 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +14 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +77 Elo | NJ 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 66.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 69.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.84th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.5% | Shot share | 54.6%3rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 90.6%8th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 10th of 329–7 | Road vs home | 9–917th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–22 | 18–18 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–18 | 15–17 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 14–19 | 12–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 4–1 NJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.