Pittsburgh Penguins at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins
Devils- Nico HischierGoals1
- Nico HischierAssists2
- Nico HischierPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:27Timo Meier Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (29), Nico Hischier (15)0–3
- P37:47Nico Hischier Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (17), Brenden Dillon (8)0–2
- P217:32Stefan Noesen Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (14), Timo Meier (13)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:32Stefan Noesen Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (14), Timo Meier (13)PIT 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 62% → 82% +20NJ 62% → 82%+20 pts
- P37:47Nico Hischier Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (17), Brenden Dillon (8)PIT 0 – 2 NJ · NJ 85% → 97% +12NJ 85% → 97%+12 pts
- P318:27Timo Meier Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (29), Nico Hischier (15)PIT 0 – 3 NJ · NJ >99% → >99% +0NJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 69%
- ML PIT +215 / NJ -260
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- NJ: Elo 61.4%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- NJ -228
- PIT +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.7 – 3.8 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +13 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +81 Elo | NJ 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 69.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.75th of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.1% | Shot share | 54.3%3rd of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 90.5%11th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 32 |
| 25th of 326–10 | Road vs home | 8–919th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–17 | 17–18 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 14–17 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 19–15 | 12–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–2 NJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.