Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Parker WotherspoonAssists1
- Parker WotherspoonPoints1
Capitals- Aliaksei ProtasGoals2
- Tom WilsonAssists2
- Aliaksei ProtasPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:51Aliaksei Protas Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (13), Nic Dowd (4)1–3
- P117:11Jakob Chychrun Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (29), John Carlson (21)1–2
- P112:05Aliaksei Protas Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (23), Tom Wilson (12)1–1
- P11:21Justin Brazeau Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:21Justin Brazeau Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (1)BOS 1 – 0 WSH · BOS 43% → 58% +15BOS 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P112:05Aliaksei Protas Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (23), Tom Wilson (12)BOS 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 40% → 56% +16WSH 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P117:11Jakob Chychrun Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (29), John Carlson (21)BOS 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 56% → 72% +16WSH 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P319:51Aliaksei Protas Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (13), Nic Dowd (4)BOS 1 – 3 WSH · WSH >99% → 100% +0WSH >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 57%
- ML BOS +125 / WSH -145
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 58.2%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -133
- BOS +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.5 – 3.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +8 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +58 Elo | WSH 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.73rd of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.4 | Margin | +1.03rd of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 50.7%12th of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.7%8th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 17th of 328–10 | Road vs home | 11–67th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–25 | 23–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 15–5 |
| Overs–unders | 18–20 | 18–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–2 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.