Columbus Blue Jackets at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals1
- Morgan GeekieAssists1
- Morgan GeekiePoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:06Cole Koepke Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–4
- P28:18David Pastrnak Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (8), Pavel Zacha (9)0–3
- P26:29Morgan Geekie Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P12:29Justin Brazeau Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Brandon Carlo (4), Mason Lohrei (15)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:29Justin Brazeau Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Brandon Carlo (4), Mason Lohrei (15)CBJ 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 64% → 77% +13BOS 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P26:29Morgan Geekie Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCBJ 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 78% → 89% +12BOS 78% → 89%+12 pts
- P28:18David Pastrnak Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (8), Pavel Zacha (9)CBJ 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 90% → 96% +6BOS 90% → 96%+6 pts
- P36:06Cole Koepke Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCBJ 0 – 4 BOS · BOS >99% → >99% +1BOS >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 64%
- ML CBJ +170 / BOS -200
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 63.5%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -180
- CBJ +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.8 – 3.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | BOS and CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +3 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +96 Elo | BOS 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 66.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.523rd of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 50.7%12th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 89.0%29th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 31st of 324–14 | Road vs home | 11–813th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–17 | 12–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 7–19 |
| Underdog | 17–13 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 24–12 | 18–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 3–2 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.