Montreal Canadiens at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- David SavardGoals1
- Cole CaufieldAssists2
- David SavardPoints2
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals2
- Sean MonahanAssists3
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:48Kirill Marchenko Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (20), Zach Werenski (24)4–5
- P33:24Dmitri Voronkov Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (24), Zach Werenski (23)4–4
- P30:20Joel Armia Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (13), Alexandre Carrier (8)4–3
- P214:26Jake Evans Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Heineman (6), David Savard (8)3–3
- P27:03Lane Hutson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (15), Cole Caufield (15)2–3
- P23:34Jordan Harris Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (19), Kirill Marchenko (23)1–3
- P22:03David Savard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (14), Nick Suzuki (24)1–2
- P118:45Kent Johnson Goal (10) Batted, assists: Zach Werenski (22), Mathieu Olivier (6)0–2
- P112:03Dmitri Voronkov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:03Dmitri Voronkov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (18)MTL 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 53% → 68% +16CBJ 53% → 68%+16 pts
- P214:26Jake Evans Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Heineman (6), David Savard (8)MTL 3 – 3 CBJ · MTL 27% → 48% +21MTL 27% → 48%+21 pts
- P30:20Joel Armia Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (13), Alexandre Carrier (8)MTL 4 – 3 CBJ · MTL 48% → 72% +24MTL 48% → 72%+24 pts
- P33:24Dmitri Voronkov Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (24), Zach Werenski (23)MTL 4 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 26% → 52% +26CBJ 26% → 52%+26 pts
- P317:48Kirill Marchenko Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (20), Zach Werenski (24)MTL 4 – 5 CBJ · CBJ 51% → 97% +47CBJ 51% → 97%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 53%
- ML MTL +105 / CBJ -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- CBJ: Elo 53.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -114
- MTL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.2 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −7 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +27 Elo | CBJ 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 58.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.318th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.6% | Shot share | 51.1%11th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 88.1%31st of 32 |
| 12th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 27th of 324–10 | Road vs home | 9–713th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–16 | 18–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 16–15 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders | 19–14 | 22–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 5–0 CBJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.