Columbus Blue Jackets at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Jake ChristiansenGoals1
- Dmitri VoronkovAssists2
- Dmitri VoronkovPoints2
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Owen TippettAssists3
- Owen TippettPoints4
Scoring summary
- OT3:30Owen Tippett Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Noah Cates (6)4–5
- P318:16Tyson Foerster Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Travis Konecny (24), Owen Tippett (11)4–4
- P315:49Jake Christiansen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (9)4–3
- P311:51Morgan Frost Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (10), Travis Konecny (23)3–3
- P310:01Kirill Marchenko Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (8), Ivan Provorov (10)3–2
- P38:48Noah Cates Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (7), Cam York (3)2–2
- P36:53Morgan Frost Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (9), Travis Konecny (22)2–1
- P27:05Mikael Pyyhtia Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (6)2–0
- P115:47Mathieu Olivier Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P310:01Kirill Marchenko Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (8), Ivan Provorov (10)CBJ 3 – 2 PHI · CBJ 47% → 79% +32CBJ 47% → 79%+32 pts
- P311:51Morgan Frost Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (10), Travis Konecny (23)CBJ 3 – 3 PHI · PHI 18% → 53% +35PHI 18% → 53%+35 pts
- P315:49Jake Christiansen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (9)CBJ 4 – 3 PHI · CBJ 48% → 91% +43CBJ 48% → 91%+43 pts
- P318:16Tyson Foerster Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Travis Konecny (24), Owen Tippett (11)CBJ 4 – 4 PHI · PHI 2% → 51% +50PHI 2% → 51%+50 pts
- OT3:30Owen Tippett Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Noah Cates (6)CBJ 4 – 5 PHI · PHI 51% → >99% +48PHI 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML CBJ +125 / PHI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.9%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -133
- CBJ +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +1 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +42 Elo | PHI 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.625th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 49.9%15th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 88.0%32nd of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 31st of 324–13 | Road vs home | 7–1023rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–16 | 16–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 15–13 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 21–12 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–3 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.