Washington Capitals at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Rasmus SandinAssists1
- Pierre-Luc DuboisPoints1
Bruins- Morgan GeekieAssists1
- Morgan GeekiePoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:38Brad Marchand Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P315:59Charlie Coyle Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Brad Marchand (15), Charlie McAvoy (11)1–3
- P313:41Elias Lindholm Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Brad Marchand (14), Charlie Coyle (3)1–2
- P24:50Jakub Vrana Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (10), Pierre-Luc Dubois (21)1–1
- P119:12Justin Brazeau Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Morgan Geekie (7), Mason Lohrei (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:12Justin Brazeau Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Morgan Geekie (7), Mason Lohrei (14)WSH 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 56% → 72% +16BOS 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P24:50Jakub Vrana Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (10), Pierre-Luc Dubois (21)WSH 1 – 1 BOS · WSH 27% → 45% +18WSH 27% → 45%+18 pts
- P313:41Elias Lindholm Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Brad Marchand (14), Charlie Coyle (3)WSH 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 52% → 88% +36BOS 52% → 88%+36 pts
- P315:59Charlie Coyle Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Brad Marchand (15), Charlie McAvoy (11)WSH 1 – 3 BOS · BOS 93% → >99% +7BOS 93% → >99%+7 pts
- P318:38Brad Marchand Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWSH 1 – 4 BOS · BOS >99% → >99% +0BOS >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML WSH +125 / BOS -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.1%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -133
- WSH +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.5 – 3.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +1 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +43 Elo | BOS 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.2 | Margin | −0.522nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 50.6%12th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.2%26th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 1st of 3212–4 | Road vs home | 10–814th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–11 | 11–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 6–18 |
| Underdog | 15–4 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 16–17 | 17–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–1 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.