Los Angeles Kings at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Brandt ClarkeAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints1
Capitals- Aliaksei ProtasGoals2
- Pierre-Luc DuboisAssists2
- Aliaksei ProtasPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:06Aliaksei Protas Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P214:18Jakub Vrana Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (20)1–2
- P24:10Kevin Fiala Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (16), Brandt Clarke (16)1–1
- P110:20Aliaksei Protas Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (19), Connor McMichael (13)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:20Aliaksei Protas Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (19), Connor McMichael (13)LA 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 59% → 74% +15WSH 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P24:10Kevin Fiala Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (16), Brandt Clarke (16)LA 1 – 1 WSH · LA 25% → 42% +17LA 25% → 42%+17 pts
- P214:18Jakub Vrana Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (20)LA 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 57% → 76% +20WSH 57% → 76%+20 pts
- P319:06Aliaksei Protas Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: noneLA 1 – 3 WSH · WSH >99% → >99% +0WSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 60%
- ML LA +140 / WSH -165
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- WSH: Elo 59.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- WSH -149
- LA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.5 – 3.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +15 | +6 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.37 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +65 Elo | WSH 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.82nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +1.22nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.8% | Shot share | 51.4%10th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.7%7th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 18th of 329–11 | Road vs home | 10–69th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–16 | 21–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–11 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 15–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–21 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 0–2 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.