Boston Bruins at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists1
- Pavel ZachaPoints1
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals2
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists2
- Dmitri VoronkovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P34:08Charlie Coyle Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (13), Brad Marchand (16)2–6
- P33:04Kirill Marchenko Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Pyyhtia (2), Jack Johnson (2)1–6
- P219:14Dmitri Voronkov Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (26), Zach Werenski (28)1–5
- P29:47Dmitri Voronkov Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Kent Johnson (11), Zach Werenski (27)1–4
- P28:13Sean Monahan Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (26), Dante Fabbro (5)1–3
- P27:00Adam Fantilli Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (10), Ivan Provorov (11)1–2
- P115:13Pavel Zacha Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (24)1–1
- P111:29Sean Monahan Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (25), Kirill Marchenko (25)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:29Sean Monahan Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (25), Kirill Marchenko (25)BOS 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 42% → 58% +16CBJ 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P115:13Pavel Zacha Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (24)BOS 1 – 1 CBJ · BOS 41% → 58% +17BOS 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P27:00Adam Fantilli Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (10), Ivan Provorov (11)BOS 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 43% → 63% +19CBJ 43% → 63%+19 pts
- P28:13Sean Monahan Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (26), Dante Fabbro (5)BOS 1 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 63% → 80% +17CBJ 63% → 80%+17 pts
- P29:47Dmitri Voronkov Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Kent Johnson (11), Zach Werenski (27)BOS 1 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 81% → 92% +11CBJ 81% → 92%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML BOS -155 / CBJ +135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.0%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -143
- CBJ +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.5 – 3.0 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +1 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +21 Elo | BOS 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.318th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 51.1%10th of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 88.0%31st of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 15th of 328–9 | Road vs home | 10–711th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–24 | 18–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–18 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders | 17–19 | 23–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–2 CBJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.