Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Jakob ChychrunGoals1
- Jakob ChychrunAssists1
- Andrew MangiapanePoints2
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- Max PaciorettyAssists1
- John TavaresPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:37Alex Ovechkin Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (16), Pierre-Luc Dubois (22)5–2
- P312:36Tom Wilson Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Jakob Chychrun (13), Dylan Strome (28)4–2
- P29:53Nic Dowd Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (11), Andrew Mangiapane (6)3–2
- P28:10Bobby McMann Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (10), Mitch Marner (37)2–2
- P18:54Jakob Chychrun Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (12), Taylor Raddysh (12)2–1
- P14:46Andrew Mangiapane Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (8)1–1
- P13:14John Tavares Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Simon Benoit (4), Max Pacioretty (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:14John Tavares Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Simon Benoit (4), Max Pacioretty (7)WSH 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 46% → 61% +15TOR 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P14:46Andrew Mangiapane Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (8)WSH 1 – 1 TOR · WSH 39% → 54% +15WSH 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P18:54Jakob Chychrun Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (12), Taylor Raddysh (12)WSH 2 – 1 TOR · WSH 54% → 69% +15WSH 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P28:10Bobby McMann Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (10), Mitch Marner (37)WSH 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 28% → 47% +19TOR 28% → 47%+19 pts
- P29:53Nic Dowd Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (11), Andrew Mangiapane (6)WSH 3 – 2 TOR · WSH 53% → 72% +19WSH 53% → 72%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 54%
- ML WSH -130 / TOR +110
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 52.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.4 – 3.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −7 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · TOR: Matt Murray: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +14 Elo | WSH 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.1 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 49.6%18th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 91.4%2nd of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 1st of 3212–5 | Road vs home | 14–66th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–12 | 20–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 13–15 |
| Underdog | 15–5 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders | 16–18 | 18–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–4 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.