Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- David KampfGoals1
- John TavaresAssists2
- John TavaresPoints2
Red Wings- Simon EdvinssonGoals1
- J.T. CompherAssists1
- Simon EdvinssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:08Simon Edvinsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (9), J.T. Compher (13)5–2
- P38:17Lucas Raymond Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (15), Dylan Larkin (15)5–1
- P219:58Nicholas Robertson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (9), Bobby McMann (5)5–0
- P216:23Mitch Marner Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (12), Max Pacioretty (6)4–0
- P119:28Mitch Marner Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: William Nylander (18), John Tavares (19)3–0
- P18:16Mitch Marner Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: John Tavares (18), Philippe Myers (2)2–0
- P12:29David Kampf Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Steven Lorentz (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:29David Kampf Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Steven Lorentz (3)TOR 1 – 0 DET · TOR 55% → 69% +14TOR 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P18:16Mitch Marner Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: John Tavares (18), Philippe Myers (2)TOR 2 – 0 DET · TOR 70% → 82% +12TOR 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P119:28Mitch Marner Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: William Nylander (18), John Tavares (19)TOR 3 – 0 DET · TOR 84% → 93% +8TOR 84% → 93%+8 pts
- P216:23Mitch Marner Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (12), Max Pacioretty (6)TOR 4 – 0 DET · TOR 97% → >99% +3TOR 97% → >99%+3 pts
- P219:58Nicholas Robertson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (9), Bobby McMann (5)TOR 5 – 0 DET · TOR >99% → >99% +0TOR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML TOR -135 / DET +115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- DET +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.9 – 2.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +7 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +2 Elo | DET 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.731st of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 45.0%32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%17th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 18th of 327–8 | Road vs home | 7–1126th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–16 | 19–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–18 | 15–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–3 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.