Washington Capitals at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Jakob ChychrunAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals2
- Patrick KaneAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:27Nic Dowd Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Taylor Raddysh (13), Brandon Duhaime (5)2–4
- P114:18Lucas Raymond Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (16), Joe Veleno (3)1–4
- P112:35Alex DeBrincat Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (10), Andrew Copp (8)1–3
- P112:04Alex Ovechkin Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (14), Connor McMichael (14)1–2
- P16:44Patrick Kane Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (6), Lucas Raymond (21)0–2
- P13:19Alex DeBrincat Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (5), Moritz Seider (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:19Alex DeBrincat Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (5), Moritz Seider (16)WSH 0 – 1 DET · DET 44% → 59% +15DET 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P16:44Patrick Kane Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (6), Lucas Raymond (21)WSH 0 – 2 DET · DET 59% → 73% +14DET 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P112:04Alex Ovechkin Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (14), Connor McMichael (14)WSH 1 – 2 DET · WSH 25% → 39% +14WSH 25% → 39%+14 pts
- P112:35Alex DeBrincat Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (10), Andrew Copp (8)WSH 1 – 3 DET · DET 61% → 75% +15DET 61% → 75%+15 pts
- P114:18Lucas Raymond Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (16), Joe Veleno (3)WSH 1 – 4 DET · DET 76% → 87% +11DET 76% → 87%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 56%
- ML WSH -140 / DET +120
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 50.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -128
- DET +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 2.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −2 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +2 Elo | WSH 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.1 | Margin | −0.731st of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 45.1%32nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.7%21st of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 1st of 3213–5 | Road vs home | 7–1227th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–12 | 19–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 15–5 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders | 17–18 | 16–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–1 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.