Boston Bruins at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints1
Rangers- Brett BerardGoals1
- Brett BerardPoints1
Scoring summary
- P27:57Elias Lindholm Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (25), Charlie McAvoy (12)1–2
- P112:53Brett Berard Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Chytil (7)0–2
- P19:48Mika Zibanejad Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (10), Chris Kreider (2)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:48Mika Zibanejad Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (10), Chris Kreider (2)BOS 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 51% → 66% +15NYR 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P112:53Brett Berard Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Chytil (7)BOS 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 67% → 80% +13NYR 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P27:57Elias Lindholm Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (25), Charlie McAvoy (12)BOS 1 – 2 NYR · BOS 15% → 30% +15BOS 15% → 30%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 51%
- ML BOS -105 / NYR -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- NYR: Elo 54.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYR -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.7 – 2.8 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | 0 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +28 Elo | NYR 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 48.8%21st of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.6%9th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 20th of 328–11 | Road vs home | 7–1024th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–26 | 11–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 8–18 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders | 18–21 | 16–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 0–3 NYR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.