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New York Rangers at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast

FinalNHL Net, MSGSN, Scripps Sports

Away

Rangers

16-19-1

3–5

at

Home

Panthers

23-13-2

NYR 35%FLA 65%

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Amerant Bank Arena · NHL Net, MSGSN, Scripps Sports

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.

FLA favored NYR favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3FLA50%NYR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Rangers
Panthers

Scoring summary

  • P319:23Aleksander Barkov Goal (11) Backhand, assists: none3–5
  • P311:38Jesper Boqvist Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Boqvist (3)3–4
  • P35:19Chris Kreider Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (23), Vincent Trocheck (13)3–3
  • P216:55Jesper Boqvist Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (16), Uvis Balinskis (9)2–3
  • P216:17Ryan Lindgren Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (27), Sam Carrick (6)2–2
  • P214:25Filip Chytil Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Berard (2)1–2
  • P15:21Mackie Samoskevich Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (5), Uvis Balinskis (8)0–2
  • P13:04Eetu Luostarinen Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (9)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P13:04Eetu Luostarinen Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (9)NYR 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 65% → 77% +13
  2. P216:17Ryan Lindgren Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (27), Sam Carrick (6)NYR 2 – 2 FLA · NYR 20% → 40% +20
  3. P216:55Jesper Boqvist Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (16), Uvis Balinskis (9)NYR 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 59% → 80% +20
  4. P35:19Chris Kreider Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (23), Vincent Trocheck (13)NYR 3 – 3 FLA · NYR 18% → 42% +25
  5. P311:38Jesper Boqvist Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Boqvist (3)NYR 3 – 4 FLA · FLA 56% → 87% +31

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Panthers 65%

SolidHit
NYR 35%FLA 65%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.

Market
FLA 65%
ML NYR +175 / FLA -210
Pre-line forecast
FLA 63%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
FLA 62%
Ratings vs. market
−2.7 pts
FLA: Elo 62.3%, market 65.1%
Fair odds
FLA -186
NYR +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NYR 2.3 – 3.2 FLA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYRFLAWhy
Team rating15121553Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−5+6NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsFLA +87 EloFLA 62.3%
Market-implied ratingsFLA 63.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastFLA 63.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastFLA 65.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
New York Rangers and Florida Panthers compared, with each team's league rank
NYRStatFLA
23rd of 322.8Goals scored3.46th of 32
17th of 323.1Goals allowed3.119th of 32
19th of 32−0.3Margin+0.310th of 32
23rd of 3248.6%Shot share53.5%5th of 32
8th of 3290.8%Save percentage89.3%25th of 32
31st of 322–8Last 106–47th of 32
13th of 329–9Road vs home9–816th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

RangersPanthers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYRFLA
Puck line11–2418–19
Last 101–94–6
Favorite8–1812–18
Underdog3–66–1
Overs–unders15–2020–17
Overs–unders, last 103–72–8

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NYR 3–7 FLA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.