Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Kirby DachGoals2
- Alex NewhookAssists2
- Kirby DachPoints2
PanthersScoring summary
- P314:17Cole Caufield Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (16)4–0
- P217:19Jake Evans Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–0
- P213:51Kirby Dach Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Alex Newhook (2)2–0
- P21:39Kirby Dach Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (1), Kaiden Guhle (5)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:39Kirby Dach Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (1), Kaiden Guhle (5)MTL 1 – 0 FLA · MTL 30% → 48% +17MTL 30% → 48%+17 pts
- P213:51Kirby Dach Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Alex Newhook (2)MTL 2 – 0 FLA · MTL 55% → 75% +20MTL 55% → 75%+20 pts
- P217:19Jake Evans Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 3 – 0 FLA · MTL 79% → 92% +13MTL 79% → 92%+13 pts
- P314:17Cole Caufield Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (16)MTL 4 – 0 FLA · MTL >99% → >99% +0MTL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 74%
- ML MTL +270 / FLA -340
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- FLA: Elo 67.5%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- FLA -286
- MTL +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.5 – 4.0 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −10 | MTL: Jakub Dobes (no track record yet) · FLA: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +127 Elo | FLA 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 70.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 70.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.8% | Shot share | 53.4%5th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 89.4%23rd of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 27th of 324–11 | Road vs home | 9–714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–16 | 18–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 12–17 |
| Underdog | 17–15 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 20–14 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 1–3 FLA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.