Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Ryan HartmanGoals1
- Ryan HartmanAssists1
- Ryan HartmanPoints2
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- Pierre-Luc DuboisAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Matt Boldy Goal Snap Shot1–0
- P311:19Marco Rossi Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (5), Jonas Brodin (10)3–3
- P35:34Martin Fehervary Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (24)2–3
- P215:08Alex Ovechkin Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (30)2–2
- P119:07Yakov Trenin Goal (3) Backhand, assists: none2–1
- P111:24Ryan Hartman Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Zach Bogosian (5), Joel Eriksson Ek (11)1–1
- P110:19Tom Wilson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:24Ryan Hartman Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Zach Bogosian (5), Joel Eriksson Ek (11)MIN 1 – 1 WSH · MIN 25% → 40% +14MIN 25% → 40%+14 pts
- P119:07Yakov Trenin Goal (3) Backhand, assists: noneMIN 2 – 1 WSH · MIN 41% → 58% +17MIN 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P215:08Alex Ovechkin Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (30)MIN 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 35% → 57% +22WSH 35% → 57%+22 pts
- P35:34Martin Fehervary Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (24)MIN 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 56% → 81% +26WSH 56% → 81%+26 pts
- P311:19Marco Rossi Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (5), Jonas Brodin (10)MIN 3 – 3 WSH · MIN 14% → 46% +31MIN 14% → 46%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 61%
- ML MIN +150 / WSH -175
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- WSH: Elo 59.9%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- WSH -159
- MIN +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.4 – 3.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | −5 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +70 Elo | WSH 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 61.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +1.13rd of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 50.7%12th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 90.9%7th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 1st of 3213–6 | Road vs home | 12–67th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–19 | 24–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–14 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 15–5 |
| Overs–unders | 17–21 | 18–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.