Ottawa Senators at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Ridly GreigGoals1
- Travis HamonicAssists1
- Claude GirouxPoints1
Wild- Frederick GaudreauGoals1
- Marcus FolignoAssists1
- Frederick GaudreauPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:16Claude Giroux Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P312:42Josh Norris Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (19), Drake Batherson (23)2–1
- P21:47Ridly Greig Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (19), Travis Hamonic (3)1–1
- P117:19Frederick Gaudreau Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Declan Chisholm (8), Marcus Foligno (8)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:19Frederick Gaudreau Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Declan Chisholm (8), Marcus Foligno (8)OTT 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 58% → 74% +16MIN 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P21:47Ridly Greig Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (19), Travis Hamonic (3)OTT 1 – 1 MIN · OTT 26% → 42% +17OTT 26% → 42%+17 pts
- P312:42Josh Norris Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (19), Drake Batherson (23)OTT 2 – 1 MIN · OTT 47% → 83% +37OTT 47% → 83%+37 pts
- P319:16Claude Giroux Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 3 – 1 MIN · OTT >99% → >99% +0OTT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 60%
- ML OTT +140 / MIN -165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 64.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -149
- OTT +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.5 – 3.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +7 | OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +103 Elo | MIN 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.312th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.4% | Shot share | 49.5%18th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 91.1%3rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 16th of 328–10 | Road vs home | 9–816th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–21 | 18–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 15–20 | 16–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 1–1 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.