Nashville Predators at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Brady SkjeiAssists2
- Brady SkjeiPoints2
Wild- Marco RossiGoals2
- Marco RossiAssists1
- Marco RossiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P37:07Marco Rossi Goal (14) Poke, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (10), Brock Faber (15)3–5
- P217:08Declan Chisholm Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (4), Marcus Johansson (10)3–4
- P212:01Ryan O'Reilly Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (8), Brady Skjei (10)3–3
- P28:57Jonas Brodin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (9), Marco Rossi (18)2–3
- P26:19Mats Zuccarello Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (9), Filip Gustavsson (1)2–2
- P115:14Jonathan Marchessault Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (12)2–1
- P111:00Colton Sissons Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Brady Skjei (9), Nick Blankenburg (1)1–1
- P17:54Marco Rossi Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Mats Zuccarello (14), Jonas Brodin (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:14Jonathan Marchessault Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (12)NSH 2 – 1 MIN · NSH 47% → 64% +17NSH 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P26:19Mats Zuccarello Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (9), Filip Gustavsson (1)NSH 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 34% → 52% +19MIN 34% → 52%+19 pts
- P28:57Jonas Brodin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (9), Marco Rossi (18)NSH 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 52% → 71% +19MIN 52% → 71%+19 pts
- P212:01Ryan O'Reilly Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (8), Brady Skjei (10)NSH 3 – 3 MIN · NSH 28% → 48% +20NSH 28% → 48%+20 pts
- P217:08Declan Chisholm Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (4), Marcus Johansson (10)NSH 3 – 4 MIN · MIN 52% → 74% +22MIN 52% → 74%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML NSH +105 / MIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 64.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- NSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.7 – 2.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +6 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +101 Elo | MIN 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.4 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.8 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 49.3%19th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 91.2%3rd of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323–16 | Road vs home | 9–919th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–21 | 18–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–24 | 16–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 2–3 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.