Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals1
- JJ PeterkaAssists1
- Jason ZuckerPoints1
Golden Knights- Tanner LaczynskiGoals1
- Tanner PearsonAssists2
- Tanner PearsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:42Jason Zucker Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (22), JJ Peterka (18)1–3
- P37:44Jack Eichel Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (10), Noah Hanifin (15)0–3
- P112:23Mark Stone Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (41), Tanner Pearson (9)0–2
- P14:53Tanner Laczynski Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Howden (5), Zach Whitecloud (3)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:53Tanner Laczynski Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Howden (5), Zach Whitecloud (3)BUF 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 66% → 79% +13VGK 66% → 79%+13 pts
- P112:23Mark Stone Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (41), Tanner Pearson (9)BUF 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 79% → 89% +10VGK 79% → 89%+10 pts
- P37:44Jack Eichel Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (10), Noah Hanifin (15)BUF 0 – 3 VGK · VGK 96% → >99% +3VGK 96% → >99%+3 pts
- P317:42Jason Zucker Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (22), JJ Peterka (18)BUF 1 – 3 VGK · BUF <1% → <1% +0BUF <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 67%
- ML BUF +190 / VGK -225
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- VGK: Elo 67.9%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- VGK -201
- BUF +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.8 – 3.7 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −16 | +6 | BUF: James Reimer: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +130 Elo | VGK 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 63.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.84th of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.3% | Shot share | 52.2%7th of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.5%9th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 24th of 327–11 | Road vs home | 16–42nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–20 | 23–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 15–13 |
| Underdog | 15–10 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 22–17 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–0 VGK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.