Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Mason McTavishGoals1
- Radko GudasAssists1
- Mason McTavishPoints1
Golden Knights- Keegan KolesarGoals1
- Keegan KolesarAssists1
- Tomas HertlPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:50Keegan Kolesar Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: William Karlsson (9), Tomas Hertl (14)1–3
- P39:36Tomas Hertl Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Jack Eichel (36), Shea Theodore (24)1–2
- P31:13Mason McTavish Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Radko Gudas (6), Robby Fabbri (3)1–1
- P119:19Tanner Pearson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (6)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:19Tanner Pearson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (6)ANA 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 69% → 82% +14VGK 69% → 82%+14 pts
- P31:13Mason McTavish Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Radko Gudas (6), Robby Fabbri (3)ANA 1 – 1 VGK · ANA 16% → 37% +21ANA 16% → 37%+21 pts
- P39:36Tomas Hertl Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Jack Eichel (36), Shea Theodore (24)ANA 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 60% → 87% +27VGK 60% → 87%+27 pts
- P315:50Keegan Kolesar Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: William Karlsson (9), Tomas Hertl (14)ANA 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 94% → >99% +6VGK 94% → >99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 72%
- ML ANA +250 / VGK -300
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- VGK: Elo 74.9%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- VGK -263
- ANA +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.6 – 3.9 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +6 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +190 Elo | VGK 74.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 74.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.75th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 51.8%9th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.1%16th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 18th of 327–8 | Road vs home | 13–31st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–10 | 19–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 19–9 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–22 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 3–4 VGK in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.