Philadelphia Flyers at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Tyson FoersterGoals1
- Noah CatesAssists1
- Tyson FoersterPoints1
Golden Knights- Tanner PearsonGoals1
- Brayden McNabbAssists1
- Tanner PearsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:24Tanner Pearson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (23), Jack Eichel (40)2–5
- P34:56Travis Konecny Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (13), Morgan Frost (11)2–4
- P32:46Alexander Holtz Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (14), Alex Pietrangelo (18)1–4
- P218:22Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (27), Brayden McNabb (5)1–3
- P22:13Nicolas Hague Goal (3) Wrap-around, assists: Keegan Kolesar (8)1–2
- P20:51Mark Stone Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Jack Eichel (39), Noah Hanifin (13)1–1
- P10:21Tyson Foerster Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (8), Bobby Brink (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:21Tyson Foerster Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (8), Bobby Brink (15)PHI 1 – 0 VGK · PHI 37% → 51% +14PHI 37% → 51%+14 pts
- P20:51Mark Stone Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Jack Eichel (39), Noah Hanifin (13)PHI 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 43% → 61% +18VGK 43% → 61%+18 pts
- P22:13Nicolas Hague Goal (3) Wrap-around, assists: Keegan Kolesar (8)PHI 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 60% → 77% +16VGK 60% → 77%+16 pts
- P218:22Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (27), Brayden McNabb (5)PHI 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 79% → 92% +13VGK 79% → 92%+13 pts
- P32:46Alexander Holtz Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (14), Alex Pietrangelo (18)PHI 1 – 4 VGK · VGK 94% → 99% +5VGK 94% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 63%
- ML PHI +160 / VGK -190
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- VGK: Elo 65.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- VGK -170
- PHI +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.9 – 3.6 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −3 | PHI: Aleksei Kolosov: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +114 Elo | VGK 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 61.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.84th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 52.2%8th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.8% | Save percentage | 90.5%10th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 17th of 329–11 | Road vs home | 15–42nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–19 | 22–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 14–13 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 21–17 | 19–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 VGK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.