Philadelphia Flyers at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Matvei MichkovGoals1
- Matvei MichkovAssists1
- Matvei MichkovPoints2
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals2
- Jacob MoverareAssists1
- Anze KopitarPoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:55Anze Kopitar Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (18)4–5
- P36:44Anze Kopitar Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Quinton Byfield (11), Jacob Moverare (2)4–4
- P215:04Warren Foegele Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–3
- P213:42Joel Farabee Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (9), Ryan Poehling (10)4–2
- P211:03Matvei Michkov Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (13), Rasmus Ristolainen (8)3–2
- P116:54Adrian Kempe Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (18), Alex Turcotte (10)2–2
- P114:09Scott Laughton Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (17), Morgan Frost (10)2–1
- P18:17Tyson Foerster Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam York (6), Travis Sanheim (15)1–1
- P15:14Kevin Fiala Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (13), Phillip Danault (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:03Matvei Michkov Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (13), Rasmus Ristolainen (8)PHI 3 – 2 LA · PHI 44% → 65% +21PHI 44% → 65%+21 pts
- P213:42Joel Farabee Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (9), Ryan Poehling (10)PHI 4 – 2 LA · PHI 66% → 83% +17PHI 66% → 83%+17 pts
- P215:04Warren Foegele Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePHI 4 – 3 LA · LA 16% → 33% +17LA 16% → 33%+17 pts
- P36:44Anze Kopitar Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Quinton Byfield (11), Jacob Moverare (2)PHI 4 – 4 LA · LA 25% → 54% +29LA 25% → 54%+29 pts
- P38:55Anze Kopitar Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (18)PHI 4 – 5 LA · LA 53% → 83% +29LA 53% → 83%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 58%
- ML PHI +130 / LA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.6 pts
- LA: Elo 65.6%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- LA -138
- PHI +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.5 – 3.0 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | LA and PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +13 | PHI: Aleksei Kolosov: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +112 Elo | LA 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 64.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.58th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 52.9%6th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.8% | Save percentage | 90.1%15th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 17th of 328–10 | Road vs home | 11–32nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–19 | 18–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 8–11 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 20–16 | 13–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 LA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.