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Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast

Final/OTESPN+, FanDuel SN West

Away

Oilers

21-11-3

3–4

at

Home

Kings

20-10-5

EDM 55%LA 45%

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crypto.com Arena · ESPN+, FanDuel SN West

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.

LA favored EDM favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTLA50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • OT3:19Quinton Byfield Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (15), Adrian Kempe (17)3–4
  • P32:32Tanner Jeannot Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Spence (10), Warren Foegele (11)3–3
  • P211:59Viktor Arvidsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (9), Leon Draisaitl (29)3–2
  • P23:20Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (35), Zach Hyman (7)2–2
  • P117:35Warren Foegele Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (9), Quinton Byfield (10)1–2
  • P112:32Quinton Byfield Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (10), Brandt Clarke (17)1–1
  • P19:43Kasperi Kapanen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (9), Ty Emberson (4)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P117:35Warren Foegele Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (9), Quinton Byfield (10)EDM 1 – 2 LA · LA 46% → 63% +17
  2. P23:20Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (35), Zach Hyman (7)EDM 2 – 2 LA · EDM 36% → 54% +18
  3. P211:59Viktor Arvidsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (9), Leon Draisaitl (29)EDM 3 – 2 LA · EDM 54% → 73% +20
  4. P32:32Tanner Jeannot Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Spence (10), Warren Foegele (11)EDM 3 – 3 LA · LA 23% → 47% +24
  5. OT3:19Quinton Byfield Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (15), Adrian Kempe (17)EDM 3 – 4 LA · LA 49% → 98% +49

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 55%

LeanMiss
EDM 55%LA 45%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
EDM 55%
ML EDM -135 / LA +115
Pre-line forecast
EDM 49%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 52%
Ratings vs. market
−3.5 pts
EDM: Elo 51.8%, market 55.3%
Fair odds
EDM -124
LA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 2.9 – 2.6 LA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMLAWhy
Team rating15641525Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies0−8EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +12 EloEDM 51.8%
Market-implied ratingsLA 51.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLA 50.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 55.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatLA
10th of 323.3Goals scored3.117th of 32
8th of 322.8Goals allowed2.63rd of 32
8th of 32+0.5Margin+0.59th of 32
2nd of 3255.2%Shot share52.9%6th of 32
20th of 3289.7%Save percentage90.2%14th of 32
2nd of 328–2Last 106–48th of 32
7th of 329–5Road vs home10–32nd of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersKings
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMLA
Puck line13–2117–17
Last 105–56–4
Favorite10–208–11
Underdog3–19–6
Overs–unders14–2012–22
Overs–unders, last 104–63–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 7–2 LA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.