Philadelphia Flyers at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Noah CatesGoals1
- Cam YorkAssists1
- Noah CatesPoints1
Ducks- Troy TerryGoals1
- Radko GudasAssists1
- Troy TerryPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:40Joel Farabee Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P35:57Morgan Frost Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Scott Laughton (12)2–1
- P215:38Troy Terry Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Radko Gudas (7), Jackson LaCombe (6)1–1
- P24:03Noah Cates Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (12), Cam York (5)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:03Noah Cates Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (12), Cam York (5)PHI 1 – 0 ANA · PHI 57% → 74% +17PHI 57% → 74%+17 pts
- P215:38Troy Terry Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Radko Gudas (7), Jackson LaCombe (6)PHI 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 24% → 44% +21ANA 24% → 44%+21 pts
- P35:57Morgan Frost Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Scott Laughton (12)PHI 2 – 1 ANA · PHI 54% → 81% +26PHI 54% → 81%+26 pts
- P317:40Joel Farabee Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePHI 3 – 1 ANA · PHI 97% → >99% +3PHI 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML PHI -155 / ANA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 47.8%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- PHI -143
- ANA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.5 – 3.0 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +10 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +15 Elo | ANA 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.531st of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.628th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 46.5%28th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.5% | Save percentage | 90.9%5th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 21st of 327–10 | Road vs home | 6–1130th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–19 | 22–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders | 20–15 | 10–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 ANA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.