Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Sean CouturierGoals1
- Cam YorkAssists1
- Sean CouturierPoints1
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists2
- Bryan RustPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:48Blake Lizotte Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Ryan Shea (2), Matt Nieto (1)3–7
- P317:30Sidney Crosby Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–6
- P218:48Michael Bunting Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (22), Erik Karlsson (21)3–5
- P213:06Sean Couturier Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (25), Scott Laughton (11)3–4
- P24:29Noah Cates Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (11), Cam York (4)2–4
- P117:44Philip Tomasino Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Sidney Crosby (29), Rickard Rakell (13)1–4
- P116:15Michael Bunting Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (21), Sidney Crosby (28)1–3
- P111:53Rickard Rakell Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (12), Erik Karlsson (20)1–2
- P16:12Egor Zamula Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (9), Scott Laughton (10)1–1
- P11:29Bryan Rust Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (27), Rickard Rakell (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:29Bryan Rust Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (27), Rickard Rakell (12)PHI 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 51% → 65% +14PIT 51% → 65%+14 pts
- P16:12Egor Zamula Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (9), Scott Laughton (10)PHI 1 – 1 PIT · PHI 34% → 49% +15PHI 34% → 49%+15 pts
- P111:53Rickard Rakell Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (12), Erik Karlsson (20)PHI 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 51% → 67% +16PIT 51% → 67%+16 pts
- P213:06Sean Couturier Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (25), Scott Laughton (11)PHI 3 – 4 PIT · PHI 13% → 29% +15PHI 13% → 29%+15 pts
- P218:48Michael Bunting Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (22), Erik Karlsson (21)PHI 3 – 5 PIT · PIT 74% → 89% +16PIT 74% → 89%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML PHI -105 / PIT -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 57.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.2 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −1 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +51 Elo | PIT 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.730th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 47.8%26th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 89.0%27th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 32 |
| 20th of 327–9 | Road vs home | 9–918th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–18 | 17–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders | 19–15 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–2 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.