Philadelphia Flyers at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Egor ZamulaGoals1
- Bobby BrinkAssists2
- Egor ZamulaPoints2
SharksScoring summary
- P32:30Egor Zamula Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (14), Noah Cates (7)4–0
- P213:44Travis Konecny Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (12), Jamie Drysdale (6)3–0
- P212:09Ryan Poehling Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Egor Zamula (6), Bobby Brink (13)2–0
- P15:59Nick Seeler Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (5)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:59Nick Seeler Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (5)PHI 1 – 0 SJ · PHI 62% → 75% +14PHI 62% → 75%+14 pts
- P212:09Ryan Poehling Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Egor Zamula (6), Bobby Brink (13)PHI 2 – 0 SJ · PHI 77% → 90% +13PHI 77% → 90%+13 pts
- P213:44Travis Konecny Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (12), Jamie Drysdale (6)PHI 3 – 0 SJ · PHI 91% → 97% +6PHI 91% → 97%+6 pts
- P32:30Egor Zamula Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (14), Noah Cates (7)PHI 4 – 0 SJ · PHI 99% → >99% +1PHI 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML PHI -185 / SJ +155
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -166
- SJ +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.6 – 2.9 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1392 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −5 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +40 Elo | PHI 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.932nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 45.7%31st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.6% | Save percentage | 89.8%19th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 1–932nd of 32 |
| 21st of 328–11 | Road vs home | 6–1231st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–19 | 25–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | — |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 25–14 |
| Overs–unders | 21–16 | 19–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–1 SJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.