Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Jonathan HuberdeauGoals2
- Nazem KadriAssists3
- Nazem KadriPoints3
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals1
- Tyler ToffoliAssists1
- Macklin CelebriniPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:59Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Nazem Kadri (12), Dustin Wolf (3)3–1
- P26:50Mikael Backlund Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (11), Rasmus Andersson (10)2–1
- P23:04Macklin Celebrini Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (10), Tyler Toffoli (11)1–1
- P14:40Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (15), Nazem Kadri (10)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:40Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (15), Nazem Kadri (10)CGY 1 – 0 SJ · CGY 62% → 75% +13CGY 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P23:04Macklin Celebrini Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (10), Tyler Toffoli (11)CGY 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 24% → 40% +16SJ 24% → 40%+16 pts
- P26:50Mikael Backlund Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (11), Rasmus Andersson (10)CGY 2 – 1 SJ · CGY 59% → 77% +17CGY 59% → 77%+17 pts
- P319:59Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Nazem Kadri (12), Dustin Wolf (3)CGY 3 – 1 SJ · CGY 100% → 100% +0CGY 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 63%
- ML CGY -190 / SJ +155
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- CGY: Elo 59.7%, market 62.6%
- Fair odds
- CGY -167
- SJ +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.6 – 2.9 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1395 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +13 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +69 Elo | CGY 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 58.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 62.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.731st of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.932nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 45.8%30th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.7%20th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 1–932nd of 32 |
| 28th of 324–11 | Road vs home | 6–1129th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–15 | 25–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | — |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 25–13 |
| Overs–unders | 15–19 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–1 SJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.