Vegas Golden Knights at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Brayden McNabbGoals1
- Alex PietrangeloAssists3
- Alex PietrangeloPoints3
Sharks- Will SmithGoals1
- Will SmithAssists1
- Will SmithPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:28Brett Howden Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (10), Alex Pietrangelo (16)6–3
- P35:46Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Brett Howden (4), Cole Schwindt (7)5–3
- P31:26Jack Eichel Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (22), Brayden McNabb (4)4–3
- P31:03Brayden McNabb Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (37), Alex Pietrangelo (15)3–3
- P215:57Tyler Toffoli Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (23), Barclay Goodrow (2)2–3
- P25:53Will Smith Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (15), Fabian Zetterlund (15)2–2
- P23:27Mark Stone Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Victor Olofsson (5), Zach Whitecloud (2)2–1
- P114:40Shakir Mukhamadullin Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (14), Will Smith (7)1–1
- P16:58Noah Hanifin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (4), Alex Pietrangelo (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:27Mark Stone Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Victor Olofsson (5), Zach Whitecloud (2)VGK 2 – 1 SJ · VGK 64% → 80% +16VGK 64% → 80%+16 pts
- P25:53Will Smith Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (15), Fabian Zetterlund (15)VGK 2 – 2 SJ · SJ 20% → 36% +16SJ 20% → 36%+16 pts
- P215:57Tyler Toffoli Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (23), Barclay Goodrow (2)VGK 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 38% → 61% +23SJ 38% → 61%+23 pts
- P31:03Brayden McNabb Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (37), Alex Pietrangelo (15)VGK 3 – 3 SJ · VGK 35% → 60% +25VGK 35% → 60%+25 pts
- P31:26Jack Eichel Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (22), Brayden McNabb (4)VGK 4 – 3 SJ · VGK 60% → 82% +22VGK 60% → 82%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 68%
- ML VGK -240 / SJ +200
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- VGK: Elo 66.3%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- VGK -212
- SJ +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.8 – 2.7 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1398 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −2 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +117 Elo | VGK 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 61.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.725th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.932nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.8% | Shot share | 46.0%30th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.8%19th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 11th of 329–8 | Road vs home | 6–1026th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–14 | 25–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–12 | — |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 25–12 |
| Overs–unders | 18–16 | 18–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 5–0 SJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.