San Jose Sharks at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists2
- Macklin CelebriniPoints2
Canucks- Kiefer SherwoodGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- Quinn HughesPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:54Luke Kunin Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (14), Tyler Toffoli (10)3–4
- P34:21Cody Ceci Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (13)2–4
- P217:52Elias Pettersson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (15), Quinn Hughes (34)1–4
- P217:08Elias Pettersson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (10), Conor Garland (19)1–3
- P216:42Kiefer Sherwood Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (11), Nils Hoglander (4)1–2
- P114:10Brock Boeser Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (33), Vincent Desharnais (3)1–1
- P111:36William Eklund Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (22), Macklin Celebrini (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:36William Eklund Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (22), Macklin Celebrini (13)SJ 1 – 0 VAN · SJ 34% → 50% +16SJ 34% → 50%+16 pts
- P114:10Brock Boeser Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (33), Vincent Desharnais (3)SJ 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 50% → 66% +16VAN 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P216:42Kiefer Sherwood Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (11), Nils Hoglander (4)SJ 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 61% → 81% +20VAN 61% → 81%+20 pts
- P217:08Elias Pettersson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (10), Conor Garland (19)SJ 1 – 3 VAN · VAN 81% → 93% +12VAN 81% → 93%+12 pts
- P217:52Elias Pettersson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (15), Quinn Hughes (34)SJ 1 – 4 VAN · VAN 93% → 98% +5VAN 93% → 98%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 68%
- ML SJ +200 / VAN -240
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- VAN: Elo 68.9%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- VAN -212
- SJ +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.2 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +19 | +7 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.48 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +138 Elo | VAN 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 70.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 69.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−0.9 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.8% | Shot share | 48.0%25th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.4%25th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 29th of 325–15 | Road vs home | 6–1231st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–12 | 15–18 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 7–13 |
| Underdog | 24–12 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 17–19 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–4 VAN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.