Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames
Golden Knights- Tanner PearsonGoals1
- Tanner PearsonAssists1
- Tanner PearsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:53Tanner Pearson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (7), Shea Theodore (26)0–3
- P314:41Victor Olofsson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (25), Jack Eichel (38)0–2
- P215:59Brett Howden Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (17), Tanner Pearson (8)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:59Brett Howden Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (17), Tanner Pearson (8)CGY 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 60% → 80% +20VGK 60% → 80%+20 pts
- P314:41Victor Olofsson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (25), Jack Eichel (38)CGY 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 91% → >99% +8VGK 91% → >99%+8 pts
- P319:53Tanner Pearson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (7), Shea Theodore (26)CGY 0 – 3 VGK · VGK 100% → 100% +0VGK 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 66%
- ML CGY +180 / VGK -215
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- VGK: Elo 68.6%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- VGK -191
- CGY +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.8 – 3.7 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −5 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +136 Elo | VGK 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 69.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.85th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 52.0%9th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.3%12th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 28th of 325–11 | Road vs home | 14–31st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–15 | 21–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 13–12 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 15–20 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 3–2 VGK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.