Buffalo Sabres at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- JJ PeterkaGoals1
- Owen PowerAssists1
- JJ PeterkaPoints1
Wild- Mats ZuccarelloGoals1
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists1
- Mats ZuccarelloPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:27Frederick Gaudreau Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (27), Jonas Brodin (15)1–4
- P36:48JJ Peterka Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (29), Rasmus Dahlin (41)1–3
- P28:11Mats Zuccarello Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (37), Zach Bogosian (11)0–3
- P25:07Justin Brazeau Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Brendan Gaunce (1), Matt Boldy (36)0–2
- P20:56Marco Rossi Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (8), Vincent Hinostroza (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:56Marco Rossi Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (8), Vincent Hinostroza (4)BUF 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 55% → 72% +17MIN 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P25:07Justin Brazeau Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Brendan Gaunce (1), Matt Boldy (36)BUF 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 72% → 86% +13MIN 72% → 86%+13 pts
- P28:11Mats Zuccarello Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (37), Zach Bogosian (11)BUF 0 – 3 MIN · MIN 87% → 95% +8MIN 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P36:48JJ Peterka Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (29), Rasmus Dahlin (41)BUF 1 – 3 MIN · BUF <1% → 5% +4BUF <1% → 5%+4 pts
- P319:27Frederick Gaudreau Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (27), Jonas Brodin (15)BUF 1 – 4 MIN · MIN >99% → 100% +0MIN >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 56%
- ML BUF +120 / MIN -140
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 61.8%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -128
- BUF +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.6 – 2.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +6 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +84 Elo | MIN 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 47.8%28th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 91.1%3rd of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 29th of 3210–22 | Road vs home | 17–1719th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–34 | 35–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–16 | 16–20 |
| Underdog | 28–18 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 40–27 | 31–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–1 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.