Seattle Kraken at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken
Wild- Ryan HartmanGoals1
- Zach BogosianAssists2
- Zach BogosianPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:23Matt Boldy Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Zach Bogosian (10)0–4
- P14:29Liam Ohgren Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (16), Gustav Nyquist (14)0–3
- P13:59Matt Boldy Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P12:47Ryan Hartman Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Bogosian (9), Vincent Hinostroza (3)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:47Ryan Hartman Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Bogosian (9), Vincent Hinostroza (3)SEA 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 60% → 74% +13MIN 60% → 74%+13 pts
- P13:59Matt Boldy Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 74% → 85% +11MIN 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P14:29Liam Ohgren Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (16), Gustav Nyquist (14)SEA 0 – 3 MIN · MIN 85% → 92% +7MIN 85% → 92%+7 pts
- P318:23Matt Boldy Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Zach Bogosian (10)SEA 0 – 4 MIN · MIN >99% → 100% +0MIN >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 61%
- ML SEA +145 / MIN -170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 66.5%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -154
- SEA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.4 – 3.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −19 | +4 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.48 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +119 Elo | MIN 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 62.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.8% | Shot share | 47.9%28th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 91.0%4th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3214–19 | Road vs home | 16–1722nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–34 | 34–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 15–20 |
| Underdog | 26–20 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 35–34 | 31–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–3 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.