Utah Hockey Club at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Kevin StenlundGoals1
- John MarinoAssists2
- Kevin StenlundPoints2
Kraken- Eeli TolvanenGoals2
- Jordan EberleAssists2
- Eeli TolvanenPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:51Eeli Tolvanen Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (12)2–4
- P310:29Kaapo Kakko Goal (11) Wrap-around, assists: none2–3
- P218:54Brandon Montour Goal (16) Deflected, assists: Jordan Eberle (11), Eeli Tolvanen (12)2–2
- P27:35Kevin Stenlund Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (8), Michael Carcone (9)2–1
- P116:48Nick Schmaltz Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (8), John Marino (7)1–1
- P10:51Eeli Tolvanen Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (35)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:51Eeli Tolvanen Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (35)UTAH 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 42% → 57% +15SEA 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P116:48Nick Schmaltz Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (8), John Marino (7)UTAH 1 – 1 SEA · UTAH 40% → 57% +17UTAH 40% → 57%+17 pts
- P27:35Kevin Stenlund Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (8), Michael Carcone (9)UTAH 2 – 1 SEA · UTAH 56% → 74% +18UTAH 56% → 74%+18 pts
- P218:54Brandon Montour Goal (16) Deflected, assists: Jordan Eberle (11), Eeli Tolvanen (12)UTAH 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 23% → 45% +22SEA 23% → 45%+22 pts
- P310:29Kaapo Kakko Goal (11) Wrap-around, assists: noneUTAH 2 – 3 SEA · SEA 47% → 80% +33SEA 47% → 80%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 58%
- ML UTAH -150 / SEA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- UTAH: Elo 52.6%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -138
- SEA +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 3.5 – 3.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −23 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.57 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +18 Elo | UTAH 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.015th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.319th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 48.8%24th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.5%25th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 11th of 3216–16 | Road vs home | 15–1928th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–36 | 32–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–23 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 21–13 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders | 28–37 | 34–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–1 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.