New Jersey Devils at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nico HischierGoals1
- Dawson MercerAssists1
- Curtis LazarPoints1
Utah HC- Mikhail SergachevGoals1
- Liam O'BrienAssists1
- Mikhail SergachevPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:44Curtis Lazar Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (43), Nathan Bastian (6)3–1
- P30:14Timo Meier Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (13), Johnathan Kovacevic (13)2–1
- P210:03Mikhail Sergachev Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Liam O'Brien (2), Kevin Stenlund (7)1–1
- P19:34Nico Hischier Goal (25) Batted, assists: Luke Hughes (21), Tomas Tatar (9)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:34Nico Hischier Goal (25) Batted, assists: Luke Hughes (21), Tomas Tatar (9)NJ 1 – 0 UTAH · NJ 48% → 64% +16NJ 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P210:03Mikhail Sergachev Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Liam O'Brien (2), Kevin Stenlund (7)NJ 1 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 32% → 52% +20UTAH 32% → 52%+20 pts
- P30:14Timo Meier Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (13), Johnathan Kovacevic (13)NJ 2 – 1 UTAH · NJ 49% → 73% +24NJ 49% → 73%+24 pts
- P312:44Curtis Lazar Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (43), Nathan Bastian (6)NJ 3 – 1 UTAH · NJ 85% → 98% +13NJ 85% → 98%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 52%
- ML NJ +100 / UTAH -120
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- UTAH: Elo 52.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -109
- NJ +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.7 – 2.8 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +7 | NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +15 Elo | UTAH 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 51.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.4% | Shot share | 50.4%13th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 9th of 3216–14 | Road vs home | 12–1829th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–36 | 27–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 21–32 | 7–20 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 21–39 | 26–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 1–0 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.