Minnesota Wild at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Frederick GaudreauGoals1
- Frederick GaudreauPoints1
Utah HC- Clayton KellerGoals1
- Clayton KellerAssists4
- Clayton KellerPoints5
Scoring summary
- P315:01Logan Cooley Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Clayton Keller (47), Nick Schmaltz (35)1–6
- P39:30Clayton Keller Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (34), Mikhail Sergachev (28)1–5
- P33:47Nick Schmaltz Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (30), Clayton Keller (46)1–4
- P217:50Sean Durzi Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (7), Olli Määttä (12)1–3
- P216:02Frederick Gaudreau Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (31)1–2
- P119:30Dylan Guenther Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (45), Barrett Hayton (18)0–2
- P13:59Barrett Hayton Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (44), Mikhail Sergachev (27)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:59Barrett Hayton Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (44), Mikhail Sergachev (27)MIN 0 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 62% → 75% +13UTAH 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P119:30Dylan Guenther Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (45), Barrett Hayton (18)MIN 0 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 76% → 87% +12UTAH 76% → 87%+12 pts
- P216:02Frederick Gaudreau Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (31)MIN 1 – 2 UTAH · MIN 9% → 22% +13MIN 9% → 22%+13 pts
- P217:50Sean Durzi Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (7), Olli Määttä (12)MIN 1 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 79% → 92% +13UTAH 79% → 92%+13 pts
- P33:47Nick Schmaltz Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (30), Clayton Keller (46)MIN 1 – 4 UTAH · UTAH 94% → 99% +5UTAH 94% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 62%
- ML MIN +155 / UTAH -185
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- UTAH: Elo 52.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -166
- MIN +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.4 – 3.1 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +5 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +19 Elo | UTAH 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 27th of 3248.2% | Shot share | 50.2%16th of 32 |
| 6th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3221–10 | Road vs home | 11–1830th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–28 | 26–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 15–17 | 6–20 |
| Underdog | 15–11 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 27–31 | 25–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–2 UTAH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.