Utah Hockey Club at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Barrett HaytonGoals2
- Nick DeSimoneAssists2
- Barrett HaytonPoints2
WildScoring summary
- P31:48Barrett Hayton Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Nick DeSimone (3)4–0
- P214:14Lawson Crouse Goal (7) Batted, assists: Olli Maatta (9)3–0
- P115:55Clayton Keller Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (9), Nick Schmaltz (29)2–0
- P11:46Barrett Hayton Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick DeSimone (2)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:46Barrett Hayton Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick DeSimone (2)UTAH 1 – 0 MIN · UTAH 43% → 58% +15UTAH 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P115:55Clayton Keller Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (9), Nick Schmaltz (29)UTAH 2 – 0 MIN · UTAH 61% → 76% +15UTAH 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P214:14Lawson Crouse Goal (7) Batted, assists: Olli Maatta (9)UTAH 3 – 0 MIN · UTAH 84% → 94% +10UTAH 84% → 94%+10 pts
- P31:48Barrett Hayton Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Nick DeSimone (3)UTAH 4 – 0 MIN · UTAH 97% → >99% +2UTAH 97% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 57%
- ML UTAH +125 / MIN -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 59.2%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -133
- UTAH +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 2.5 – 3.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +3 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +65 Elo | MIN 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.0% | Shot share | 48.4%24th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 91.0%4th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 10th of 3212–11 | Road vs home | 11–1120th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–22 | 24–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–13 | 13–14 |
| Underdog | 18–9 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 21–25 | 22–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–1 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.