New York Islanders at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Mathew BarzalGoals1
- Anders LeeAssists2
- Mathew BarzalPoints2
Utah HC- Nick SchmaltzGoals1
- Michael KesselringAssists1
- Nick SchmaltzPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:35Mathew Barzal Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (16), Brock Nelson (13)2–1
- P33:36Brock Nelson Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (15), Mathew Barzal (9)1–1
- P21:13Nick Schmaltz Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Michael Kesselring (12), Logan Cooley (25)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:13Nick Schmaltz Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Michael Kesselring (12), Logan Cooley (25)NYI 0 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 51% → 68% +17UTAH 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P33:36Brock Nelson Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (15), Mathew Barzal (9)NYI 1 – 1 UTAH · NYI 24% → 49% +26NYI 24% → 49%+26 pts
- P318:35Mathew Barzal Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (16), Brock Nelson (13)NYI 2 – 1 UTAH · NYI 50% → >99% +49NYI 50% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 51%
- ML NYI -105 / UTAH -115
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- UTAH: Elo 49.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -104
- NYI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.2 – 3.3 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −21 | NYI: Marcus Hogberg: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · UTAH: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.53 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +2 Elo | NYI 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.217th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 48.8%23rd of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.4%12th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 25th of 329–14 | Road vs home | 6–1231st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–24 | 22–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–18 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 17–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–18 | 17–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 0–1 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.