Florida Panthers at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Jesper BoqvistGoals2
- Carter VerhaegheAssists1
- Jesper BoqvistPoints2
Utah HC- Logan CooleyGoals1
- Clayton KellerAssists1
- Logan CooleyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:38Eetu Luostarinen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (24)4–1
- P317:59Jesper Boqvist Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Gustav Forsling (10)3–1
- P313:41Logan Cooley Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (26), Mikhail Sergachev (21)2–1
- P31:48Jesper Boqvist Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (20), Anton Lundell (18)2–0
- P21:05Sam Reinhart Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (23), Aleksander Barkov (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:05Sam Reinhart Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (23), Aleksander Barkov (25)FLA 1 – 0 UTAH · FLA 56% → 72% +17FLA 56% → 72%+17 pts
- P31:48Jesper Boqvist Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (20), Anton Lundell (18)FLA 2 – 0 UTAH · FLA 78% → 92% +15FLA 78% → 92%+15 pts
- P313:41Logan Cooley Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (26), Mikhail Sergachev (21)FLA 2 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 1% → 12% +11UTAH 1% → 12%+11 pts
- P317:59Jesper Boqvist Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Gustav Forsling (10)FLA 3 – 1 UTAH · FLA 98% → >99% +2FLA 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P319:38Eetu Luostarinen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (24)FLA 4 – 1 UTAH · FLA 100% → 100% +0FLA 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 57%
- ML FLA -145 / UTAH +125
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- FLA: Elo 54.2%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- FLA -133
- UTAH +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 2.5 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −2 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +29 Elo | FLA 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.115th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.5% | Shot share | 48.7%22nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.2%13th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 6th of 3211–8 | Road vs home | 5–1132nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–22 | 22–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 17–7 |
| Overs–unders | 21–20 | 17–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.