Utah Hockey Club at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Jack McBainGoals1
- Dylan GuentherAssists1
- Jack McBainPoints1
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Connor BrownAssists2
- Connor BrownPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:58Leon Draisaitl Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Emberson (5), Mattias Ekholm (11)1–4
- P25:13Troy Stecher Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (12), Connor McDavid (39)1–3
- P24:53Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (38), Connor Brown (11)1–2
- P16:00Jack McBain Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (17), Logan Cooley (24)1–1
- P14:26Mattias Ekholm Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (10), Evan Bouchard (21)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:26Mattias Ekholm Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (10), Evan Bouchard (21)UTAH 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 64% → 77% +13EDM 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P16:00Jack McBain Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (17), Logan Cooley (24)UTAH 1 – 1 EDM · UTAH 23% → 36% +13UTAH 23% → 36%+13 pts
- P24:53Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (38), Connor Brown (11)UTAH 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 61% → 78% +17EDM 61% → 78%+17 pts
- P25:13Troy Stecher Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (12), Connor McDavid (39)UTAH 1 – 3 EDM · EDM 78% → 89% +12EDM 78% → 89%+12 pts
- P318:58Leon Draisaitl Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Emberson (5), Mattias Ekholm (11)UTAH 1 – 4 EDM · EDM >99% → 100% +0EDM >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 64%
- ML UTAH +170 / EDM -200
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- EDM: Elo 67.6%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -180
- UTAH +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 2.8 – 3.7 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −2 | UTAH: Jaxson Stauber: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +128 Elo | EDM 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 71.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 70.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 54.6%2nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.5%22nd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 11th of 3211–9 | Road vs home | 12–811th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–16 | 13–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 10–22 |
| Underdog | 16–6 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 16–20 | 16–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–1 EDM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.