Utah Hockey Club at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Alexander KerfootGoals1
- Michael CarconeAssists1
- Alexander KerfootPoints1
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzGoals1
- Jaden SchwartzAssists2
- Jaden SchwartzPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:12Jared McCann Goal (13) Poke, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (15)2–5
- P311:09Matty Beniers Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (12), Vince Dunn (8)2–4
- P37:22Jaden Schwartz Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (11)2–3
- P219:01Alexander Kerfoot Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Carcone (6), Ian Cole (9)2–2
- P118:57Andre Burakovsky Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jaden Schwartz (13), Adam Larsson (6)1–2
- P118:06Yanni Gourde Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (14), Jaden Schwartz (12)1–1
- P18:41Logan Cooley Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (24), Nick Schmaltz (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:06Yanni Gourde Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (14), Jaden Schwartz (12)UTAH 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 26% → 42% +16SEA 26% → 42%+16 pts
- P118:57Andre Burakovsky Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jaden Schwartz (13), Adam Larsson (6)UTAH 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 42% → 59% +17SEA 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P219:01Alexander Kerfoot Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Carcone (6), Ian Cole (9)UTAH 2 – 2 SEA · UTAH 32% → 56% +24UTAH 32% → 56%+24 pts
- P37:22Jaden Schwartz Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (11)UTAH 2 – 3 SEA · SEA 45% → 75% +30SEA 45% → 75%+30 pts
- P311:09Matty Beniers Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (12), Vince Dunn (8)UTAH 2 – 4 SEA · SEA 80% → 96% +16SEA 80% → 96%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 60%
- ML UTAH -165 / SEA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- UTAH: Elo 52.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -149
- SEA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 3.5 – 3.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −17 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +20 Elo | UTAH 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.319th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 48.5%24th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.8%21st of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 8th of 3211–8 | Road vs home | 8–1020th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–15 | 19–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 16–6 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders | 15–20 | 17–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.