Seattle Kraken at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Vince DunnGoals2
- Vince DunnAssists1
- Vince DunnPoints3
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals2
- Jake DeBruskAssists1
- Brock BoeserPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:15Vince Dunn Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–4
- P319:10Jaden Schwartz Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (14)4–4
- P318:48Vince Dunn Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none3–4
- P315:15Jaden Schwartz Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (7), Daniel Sprong (3)2–4
- P33:09Jake DeBrusk Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (17), Derek Forbort (2)1–4
- P215:14Brock Boeser Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Carson Soucy (5), Danton Heinen (10)1–3
- P28:36Conor Garland Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (12), Carson Soucy (4)1–2
- P21:18Matty Beniers Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (5)1–1
- P116:03Brock Boeser Goal (12) Poke, assists: Jake DeBrusk (11), J.T. Miller (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:03Brock Boeser Goal (12) Poke, assists: Jake DeBrusk (11), J.T. Miller (16)SEA 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 54% → 70% +16VAN 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P21:18Matty Beniers Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (5)SEA 1 – 1 VAN · SEA 29% → 47% +17SEA 29% → 47%+17 pts
- P28:36Conor Garland Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (12), Carson Soucy (4)SEA 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 53% → 72% +19VAN 53% → 72%+19 pts
- P319:10Jaden Schwartz Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (14)SEA 4 – 4 VAN · SEA <1% → 49% +49SEA <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT2:15Vince Dunn Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 5 – 4 VAN · SEA 49% → 95% +46SEA 49% → 95%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 54%
- ML SEA +110 / VAN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.8 pts
- VAN: Elo 66.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- VAN -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.6 – 2.9 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −18 | +6 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.46 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +116 Elo | VAN 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 60.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.111th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.121st of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.3 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.3% | Shot share | 47.9%25th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.4%23rd of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 23rd of 327–11 | Road vs home | 7–1227th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–18 | 15–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 16–20 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–1 VAN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.