Edmonton Oilers at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals2
- Evan BouchardAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Ducks- Robby FabbriGoals1
- Robby FabbriAssists1
- Robby FabbriPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:08Mason McTavish Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (4)3–5
- P317:24Ryan Strome Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (17)3–4
- P217:33Robby Fabbri Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (11), Cutter Gauthier (11)3–3
- P212:19Drew Helleson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none3–2
- P29:10Leon Draisaitl Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (37), Zach Hyman (8)3–1
- P113:52Cutter Gauthier Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (7)2–1
- P111:49Evan Bouchard Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (5), Connor Brown (10)2–0
- P18:03Leon Draisaitl Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (36), Evan Bouchard (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:03Leon Draisaitl Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (36), Evan Bouchard (20)EDM 1 – 0 ANA · EDM 70% → 82% +12EDM 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P29:10Leon Draisaitl Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (37), Zach Hyman (8)EDM 3 – 1 ANA · EDM 82% → 92% +10EDM 82% → 92%+10 pts
- P212:19Drew Helleson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneEDM 3 – 2 ANA · ANA 7% → 18% +11ANA 7% → 18%+11 pts
- P217:33Robby Fabbri Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (11), Cutter Gauthier (11)EDM 3 – 3 ANA · ANA 18% → 37% +19ANA 18% → 37%+19 pts
- P317:24Ryan Strome Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (17)EDM 3 – 4 ANA · ANA 45% → 95% +49ANA 45% → 95%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 71%
- ML EDM -280 / ANA +230
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- EDM: Elo 64.0%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- EDM -243
- ANA +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.9 – 2.6 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | ANA and EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +9 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +100 Elo | EDM 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 69.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.432nd of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.728th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3255.0% | Shot share | 46.8%28th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.9%5th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 8th of 329–6 | Road vs home | 6–1230th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–22 | 22–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–21 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 15–20 | 10–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 4–0 ANA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.