Utah Hockey Club at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Matias MaccelliGoals2
- Ian ColeAssists1
- Matias MaccelliPoints2
Stars- Jamie BennGoals1
- Matt DucheneAssists2
- Matt DuchenePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:01Thomas Harley Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (22), Wyatt Johnston (20)2–3
- P213:37Matias Maccelli Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (9), Ian Cole (11)2–2
- P210:30Oskar Bäck Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Arttu Hyry (1), Nils Lundkvist (4)1–2
- P21:30Matias Maccelli Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Lawson Crouse (4), Nick Bjugstad (6)1–1
- P20:16Jamie Benn Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (19), Matt Duchene (21)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:16Jamie Benn Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (19), Matt Duchene (21)UTAH 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 58% → 74% +16DAL 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P21:30Matias Maccelli Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Lawson Crouse (4), Nick Bjugstad (6)UTAH 1 – 1 DAL · UTAH 26% → 42% +16UTAH 26% → 42%+16 pts
- P210:30Oskar Bäck Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Arttu Hyry (1), Nils Lundkvist (4)UTAH 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 57% → 76% +19DAL 57% → 76%+19 pts
- P213:37Matias Maccelli Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (9), Ian Cole (11)UTAH 2 – 2 DAL · UTAH 24% → 43% +20UTAH 24% → 43%+20 pts
- OT3:01Thomas Harley Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (22), Wyatt Johnston (20)UTAH 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 52% → 98% +46DAL 52% → 98%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 60%
- ML UTAH +140 / DAL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 64.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- DAL -149
- UTAH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 3.0 – 3.5 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +4 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +101 Elo | DAL 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 61.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 15th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.75th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 54.3%3rd of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.9%5th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 10th of 3212–10 | Road vs home | 15–53rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–17 | 17–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 15–17 |
| Underdog | 16–7 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 17–21 | 14–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–2 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.