Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Ridly GreigGoals1
- Shane PintoAssists1
- Ridly GreigPoints1
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Matt DuchenePoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:37Matt Duchene Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (18)2–4
- P211:27Roope Hintz Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (21), Evgenii Dadonov (7)2–3
- P210:19Jamie Benn Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (20), Wyatt Johnston (17)2–2
- P18:09Ridly Greig Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (20)2–1
- P17:45Brady Tkachuk Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (4)1–1
- P14:39Roope Hintz Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (20), Miro Heiskanen (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:39Roope Hintz Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (20), Miro Heiskanen (14)OTT 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 63% → 76% +13DAL 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P17:45Brady Tkachuk Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (4)OTT 1 – 1 DAL · OTT 24% → 37% +14OTT 24% → 37%+14 pts
- P18:09Ridly Greig Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (20)OTT 2 – 1 DAL · OTT 37% → 53% +15OTT 37% → 53%+15 pts
- P210:19Jamie Benn Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (20), Wyatt Johnston (17)OTT 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 39% → 60% +20DAL 39% → 60%+20 pts
- P211:27Roope Hintz Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (21), Evgenii Dadonov (7)OTT 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 60% → 78% +18DAL 60% → 78%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 64%
- ML OTT +165 / DAL -195
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- DAL: Elo 62.5%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- DAL -175
- OTT +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.4 – 3.1 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +4 | OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +89 Elo | DAL 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 64.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.75th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.5% | Shot share | 54.1%4th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 91.0%4th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 15th of 329–10 | Road vs home | 14–55th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–21 | 16–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 14–17 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 15–21 | 13–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 1–1 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.