Utah Hockey Club at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Lawson CrouseGoals2
- Clayton KellerAssists1
- Lawson CrousePoints2
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Blake ColemanAssists1
- Blake ColemanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:00Kevin Stenlund Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (8), Mikhail Sergachev (20)5–3
- P32:35Lawson Crouse Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Bjugstad (5), Olli Maatta (7)4–3
- P30:37Clayton Keller Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Olli Maatta (6), Barrett Hayton (10)3–3
- P215:14Brayden Pachal Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (10), Blake Coleman (10)2–3
- P27:26Connor Zary Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (5), MacKenzie Weegar (16)2–2
- P26:19Logan Cooley Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Guenther (18), Clayton Keller (25)2–1
- P119:12Blake Coleman Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (13), Rasmus Andersson (11)1–1
- P18:51Lawson Crouse Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ian Cole (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:19Logan Cooley Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Guenther (18), Clayton Keller (25)UTAH 2 – 1 CGY · UTAH 53% → 71% +18UTAH 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P27:26Connor Zary Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (5), MacKenzie Weegar (16)UTAH 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 28% → 47% +19CGY 28% → 47%+19 pts
- P215:14Brayden Pachal Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (10), Blake Coleman (10)UTAH 2 – 3 CGY · CGY 47% → 69% +22CGY 47% → 69%+22 pts
- P30:37Clayton Keller Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Olli Maatta (6), Barrett Hayton (10)UTAH 3 – 3 CGY · UTAH 28% → 52% +24UTAH 28% → 52%+24 pts
- P32:35Lawson Crouse Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Bjugstad (5), Olli Maatta (7)UTAH 4 – 3 CGY · UTAH 52% → 77% +25UTAH 52% → 77%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 54%
- ML UTAH -130 / CGY +110
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- UTAH: Elo 47.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -119
- CGY +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 3.4 – 3.1 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −10 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +15 Elo | CGY 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 51.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.724th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.319th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.5% | Shot share | 50.1%15th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.3%12th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 13th of 3211–10 | Road vs home | 13–77th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–17 | 21–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 16–7 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders | 16–21 | 15–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–0 CGY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.