Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals1
- Erik BrannstromAssists1
- Brock BoeserPoints1
Flames- Jonathan HuberdeauGoals1
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists1
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:58Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: none1–3
- P39:18Nazem Kadri Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (13), Martin Pospisil (10)1–2
- P36:15Brock Boeser Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: J.T. Miller (18), Erik Brannstrom (5)1–1
- P114:31Connor Zary Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (4), Jakob Pelletier (4)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:31Connor Zary Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (4), Jakob Pelletier (4)VAN 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 55% → 70% +16CGY 55% → 70%+16 pts
- P36:15Brock Boeser Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: J.T. Miller (18), Erik Brannstrom (5)VAN 1 – 1 CGY · VAN 20% → 47% +27VAN 20% → 47%+27 pts
- P39:18Nazem Kadri Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (13), Martin Pospisil (10)VAN 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 52% → 82% +30CGY 52% → 82%+30 pts
- P318:58Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: noneVAN 1 – 3 CGY · CGY >99% → >99% +0CGY >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 55%
- ML VAN +115 / CGY -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- CGY: Elo 51.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CGY -124
- VAN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.6 – 2.9 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +10 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +12 Elo | CGY 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.724th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 50.0%15th of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.2%14th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3210–5 | Road vs home | 12–78th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–20 | 20–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–15 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders | 19–16 | 15–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 4–2 CGY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.