Florida Panthers at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Jesper BoqvistAssists1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints1
Avalanche- Ross ColtonAssists1
- Ross ColtonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:03Mikko Rantanen Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (15), Nathan MacKinnon (52)1–3
- P38:54Devon Toews Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (2), Juuso Parssinen (4)1–2
- P218:18Devon Toews Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (18)1–1
- P115:57Carter Verhaeghe Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (17), Jesper Boqvist (8)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:57Carter Verhaeghe Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (17), Jesper Boqvist (8)FLA 1 – 0 COL · FLA 48% → 65% +17FLA 48% → 65%+17 pts
- P218:18Devon Toews Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (18)FLA 1 – 1 COL · COL 28% → 51% +23COL 28% → 51%+23 pts
- P38:54Devon Toews Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (2), Juuso Parssinen (4)FLA 1 – 2 COL · COL 51% → 81% +30COL 51% → 81%+30 pts
- P318:03Mikko Rantanen Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (15), Nathan MacKinnon (52)FLA 1 – 3 COL · COL 98% → >99% +2COL 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 52%
- ML FLA +100 / COL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- COL: Elo 52.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -109
- FLA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.2 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | 0 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +20 Elo | COL 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.7% | Shot share | 52.5%6th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 89.2%27th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 5th of 3211–7 | Road vs home | 11–914th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–21 | 15–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 11–19 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–19 | 22–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 2–1 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.