Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Brent BurnsGoals1
- Jordan StaalAssists1
- Brent BurnsPoints1
Panthers- Jesper BoqvistAssists1
- Evan RodriguesPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:32Martin Necas Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (15), Jordan Staal (11)3–1
- P312:30Jaccob Slavin Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (12), Sean Walker (7)2–1
- P22:17Anton Lundell Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Jesper Boqvist (7), Evan Rodrigues (10)1–1
- P10:35Brent Burns Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (10), Seth Jarvis (17)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:35Brent Burns Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (10), Seth Jarvis (17)CAR 1 – 0 FLA · CAR 47% → 61% +14CAR 47% → 61%+14 pts
- P22:17Anton Lundell Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Jesper Boqvist (7), Evan Rodrigues (10)CAR 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 35% → 53% +18FLA 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P312:30Jaccob Slavin Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (12), Sean Walker (7)CAR 2 – 1 FLA · CAR 49% → 84% +35CAR 49% → 84%+35 pts
- P319:32Martin Necas Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (15), Jordan Staal (11)CAR 3 – 1 FLA · CAR >99% → 100% +0CAR >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 53%
- ML CAR +105 / FLA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- FLA: Elo 55.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -114
- CAR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.7 – 2.8 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +5 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +39 Elo | FLA 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.46th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.0% | Shot share | 53.2%5th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.3%25th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 20th of 328–11 | Road vs home | 10–814th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–18 | 19–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–16 | 13–18 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 16–21 | 21–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 2–3 FLA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.