Carolina Hurricanes at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jesperi KotkaniemiGoals1
- Eric RobinsonAssists1
- Jack RoslovicPoints1
Blue Jackets- Kirill MarchenkoGoals2
- Sean MonahanAssists3
- Sean MonahanPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Adam Fantilli Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Kent Johnson Goal Snap Shot1–2
- SO0:00Andrei Svechnikov Goal Snap Shot1–2
- P34:58Dmitri Voronkov Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (23), Zach Werenski (29)3–3
- P28:18Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Eric Robinson (11)3–2
- P25:47Jack Roslovic Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jarvis (16), Sebastian Aho (28)2–2
- P115:43Kirill Marchenko Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (11), Sean Monahan (22)1–2
- P19:59Ty Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (27), Martin Necas (31)1–1
- P14:48Kirill Marchenko Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (21), Denton Mateychuk (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:59Ty Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (27), Martin Necas (31)CAR 1 – 1 CBJ · CAR 52% → 67% +15CAR 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P115:43Kirill Marchenko Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (11), Sean Monahan (22)CAR 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 34% → 50% +16CBJ 34% → 50%+16 pts
- P25:47Jack Roslovic Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jarvis (16), Sebastian Aho (28)CAR 2 – 2 CBJ · CAR 46% → 65% +19CAR 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P28:18Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Eric Robinson (11)CAR 3 – 2 CBJ · CAR 64% → 81% +17CAR 64% → 81%+17 pts
- P34:58Dmitri Voronkov Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (23), Zach Werenski (29)CAR 3 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 16% → 40% +24CBJ 16% → 40%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 69%
- ML CAR -250 / CBJ +210
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- CAR: Elo 59.6%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- CAR -221
- CBJ +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.8 – 2.7 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +3 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +67 Elo | CAR 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 69.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 67.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.319th of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.0% | Shot share | 51.0%10th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 88.1%31st of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 17th of 328–10 | Road vs home | 11–79th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–17 | 19–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–15 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 17–14 |
| Overs–unders | 15–21 | 24–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–2 CBJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.